Iraq Passes Crucial Election Law

By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS and SA’AD IZZI BAGHDAD — After weeks of political stalemate, Iraq approved a law on Sunday to administer a critical national election in January, a significant milestone for its fragile democracy and a step that will allow the rapid withdrawal of American combat forces early next year. The election, only the second national vote since the fall of Saddam Hussein, will be a crucial step toward popular sovereignty and stability in Iraq. But the election law had been stymied by a political battle over the northern province of Kirkuk, claimed by Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens, each of whom hoped electoral power would give them control of the region’s oil wealth. The compromise reached Sunday, which satisfied all three groups, was hailed by Iraqi and American leaders as a triumph for Iraq’s emerging democracy and a demonstration of Parliament’s ability to resolve sticky sectarian disputes for the national benefit. “Accomplishing this law is not a victory for anyone in particular, but a victory for the entire Iraqi people,” said Faryad Raundozi, a member of Parliament’s Kurdish Alliance. The United States had said that a delay of the election could set back the scheduled withdrawal of American combat troops. On Sunday, President Obama called the Parliament’s action “a significant breakthrough” that would ease fears about an American military withdrawal. “This agreement advances the political progress that can bring lasting peace and unity to Iraq, and allow for the orderly and responsible transition of American combat troops out of Iraq by next September,” Mr. Obama said at the White House. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq said in a statement that the passage of the law had been a “historic victory of the will of the people” and a “strong response” to those seeking to undermine Iraq’s democracy. American military commanders have said they intend to begin a rapid withdrawal of the 120,000 American troops still in Iraq after the election. The United States has pledged to withdraw all combat forces from Iraq by the end of next August, leaving about 50,000 troops in an advisory and support role. All American troops are scheduled to leave the country by the end of 2011. After the vote, the American ambassador to Iraq, Christopher R. Hill, said the withdrawal would proceed as planned. “What is important is that with the election law, we are very much on schedule for the drawdown,” he said. American and Iraqi officials hope the election will cement democracy here at a time when many people have grown discontented with their leadership and fed up with continued violence, corruption and high unemployment. The previous parliamentary vote, in 2005, was boycotted by many Sunni Arabs, an act that allowed the insurgency to fester and fueled subsequent sectarian bloodshed. This time, each of the major political parties and Iraqi’s major religious and ethnic groups have all said they will participate. Khalid Ataya, the deputy speaker of Parliament, told members of the legislature that they were taking a momentous step in the country’s young democratic history. “The Parliament has done something important for the people of Iraq,” he said. “This is a big blow to terrorists.” As an indication of the election’s importance to the United States, Mr. Hill was seen shuttling back and forth between the offices of various political parties all day Sunday in an effort to pressure them to reach a deal. “Go upstairs and vote!” he shouted at a pair of slow-moving lawmakers as they climbed a set of stairs to the chamber before the session. The election had been scheduled for Jan. 16, but as the parliamentary session ended late Sunday, officials said it appeared that it would be delayed by a few days to give election officials time to print ballots and to make other preparations. For weeks, the legislature had wrestled with how to determine voter eligibility in Kirkuk, which sits on billions of barrels of oil. The issue threatened to undermine the election, and Parliament’s inability to resolve it had become a symbol of Iraq’s political dysfunction. Tens of thousands of Kurds were forced out of Kirkuk by Saddam Hussein, who replaced them with Arabs in order to tighten his grip on the region’s oil. Since the United States-led invasion that ousted Mr. Hussein in 2003, thousands of Kurds have moved back. Arabs and Turkmens in Kirkuk had favored using voter registration lists from 2004 or 2005, while Kurds wanted to use voter rolls from 2009 that reflected their substantially higher numbers. The agreement reached Sunday, brokered by the United States and the United Nations, will use voter lists from 2009, but if the number of eligible voters in a particular area is deemed by members of Parliament to be suspiciously high, a committee overseen by the United Nations will be formed to determine whether fraud has occurred, according to a draft of the law. The compromise satisfied each of the groups competing for dominance in Kirkuk. “We have passed a stage, a crisis, and no one is a loser,” said Abbas al-Bayti, a Turkmen legislator. Osama al-Najafi, an Arab legislator, said: “There will be no injustice for the people of Kirkuk. This is a great victory for their historical rights.” The election will also allow voters to choose individual candidates as part of an “open list,” as opposed to the closed-list ballot in which voters pick political parties, who in turn choose people to occupy seats in Parliament. The 2005 election used a closed list, which helped protect candidates from assassination, but it strengthened organized parties rather than individual candidates and was unpopular with voters. The new law, which also reserves a quarter of the next Parliament’s seats for women, must be approved by President Jalal Talabani and his two vice presidents, which is expected to happen in a few days. Under the Constitution, the election must take place before the end of January, but an important Shiite religious observance comes during the last week of that month. Hamdia al-Hussaini, a member of the Independent High Electoral Commission, the Iraqi government agency that oversees elections, said Sunday that the vote would have to be delayed at least several days past the scheduled date of Jan. 16. “It can’t be held on the 16th because Parliament was late in passing the law,” she said. On Sunday, some Sunni Arab members of Parliament said they were unhappy about interference with the legislation by the United States, particularly the American insistence that elections not be delayed. “Unfortunately, the Americans are insisting on certain dates more than they are insisting on the objectivity of their decisions,” said Saleh al-Mutlaq, a Sunni member of Parliament. Parliament has the final decision about when to hold the election.

What recovery? Unemployment shoots past 10 percent

Joblessness at 10 percent for 2nd time since WWII; millions of unemployed feel no recovery By Jeannine Aversa and Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writers On 6:39 pm EST, Friday November 6, 2009 WASHINGTON (AP) -- Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought. The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery. President Barack Obama called it "a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead." He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for homebuyers. Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected 10.5 percent. Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States -- from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent. "It's not a good report," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co. "What we're seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track." The Labor Department, using a survey of company payrolls, said the economy shed 190,000 jobs in October. A separate survey of households found 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September. Some 15.7 million Americans are out of work. The survey of companies doesn't count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire. One struggling small business, homebuilder Miller and Smith Inc. of McLean, Va., has trimmed its work force to about 100 from 350 at the height of the housing market in 2005. The company has been hurt by a slowdown in building and surging health care costs. Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation's jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines -- both of which banks have tightened -- for cash flow. And the unemployment rate doesn't include people without jobs who have stopped looking, or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest since at least 1994. Economists had expected unemployment to rise to no more than 9.9 percent, up just a tick from September's 9.8 percent, and the surprising jump added to fears that the recovery could fizzle if Americans don't spend. Already, consumer confidence for October came in well below what analysts were expecting. Shoppers' sentiments about the state of the economy are the gloomiest in nearly three decades. Stores, always with an eye on holiday sales, are especially worried this year. "This is a situation where the recovery balloon is getting off the ground but might not have enough power to keep rising," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight. Sitting at a St. Louis unemployment center, Paul Branyon, who was laid off in July from a Williams-Sonoma factory in Tennessee and now lives with relatives, shook his head and laughed at the notion that the recession is over. "It's getting actually harder right now," the 26-year-old said. "It seems like everywhere you go, people are losing jobs. People are cutting back. So it's going to get harder before it gets easier." The economy actually grew from July to September for the first time in a year, but that's no consolation for people like Jose Betancourt, 57, who goes to a Miami-area career center twice a week to take computer education classes. Betancourt has been out of work since July, when he was laid off from his supermarket maintenance job. He lives on about $600 a month in unemployment benefits, barely enough for the rent for his efficiency apartment, food and utilities. He has trouble believing the recession is over. In his neighborhood, he sees other jobless people and empty stores. "It's as if they just gave the economy a nice coat of varnish to make everyone feel better," he said. "I'm in a state of anxiety, and I see it all around Miami." The worst recession since the 1930s may be over, but the recovery isn't expected to be strong enough to stem job losses and get businesses hiring again. And the unemployed are staying out of work longer. The count of people jobless for six months or longer stands at a record 5.6 million. As for employers, few are confident enough in the recovery to hire. Art McKeen, plant manager of the Baldor Electric Co. factory in suburban St. Louis, says the plant has no plans add workers any time soon. Baldor cut back production last year and put workers on part-time hours rather than lay them off. Orders have picked up again, but not enough to justify hiring. "We don't have the need for them right now," McKeen said. Prospects that the government might pass a second stimulus bill appear dim. Congress is already grappling with sweeping health care legislation, raising concerns about further swelling the federal deficit. "More debt, more spending ... clearly has not worked -- particularly in a time of double-digit unemployment," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Democrats said the economy would have been in worse shape without the first stimulus. October was the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has lost jobs, the longest on record dating back 70 years. Losses at factories, construction companies, retailers and financial services companies far outweighed gains in education and health care, professional and business services and elsewhere. Government payrolls were flat. One faint sign of hope: Temporary employment grew by 33,700 jobs, its third straight month of gains after steep losses earlier this year. Employers are likely to add temporary workers before hiring permanent ones. Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, called the big jump in the jobless rate "a kick in the stomach" and predicted a slog ahead. It could take at least four years for the jobless rate to drop to more normal levels of 5 or 6 percent. "The last two recoveries from recession in the '90s and 2001 were jobless, and this one is clearly headed down the same road," he said. Associated Press Writers Jim Kuhnhenn and Anne Flaherty in Washington, Emily Fredrix in Milwaukee, Christopher Leonard in St. Louis, Adrian Sainz in Miami, Andrew Vanacore in New York and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this report.

Exxon Group Wins Iraq Oil Contract

Deal Would Pay Set Fee for Developing Giant Field With Royal Dutch Shell By GINA CHON BAGHDAD—The Iraqi Oil Ministry on Thursday said it has awarded a consortium led by Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC the right to develop the West Qurna-1 oil field, representing the first American-led team gaining access to the country's oil patch. The pact is the latest in a series of deals Iraq has recently signed or initialed with some of the world's biggest oil companies. Earlier this week, Iraqi officials completed a final agreement with BP PLC and China National Petroleum Corp. and an initial agreement with a consortium led by Italy's Eni SpA. U.S. oil company Occidental Petroleum Corp. participated as a junior partner in the Eni-led team. An employee works at the Tawke oil field near the town of Zacho in Iraq. The Exxon-Shell team, combining two of the world's biggest publicly listed oil companies, had been seen as the favorite to win the contract, which calls for the consortium to boost production at the already-pumping field in southern Iraq in exchange for a per-barrel fee. Among the three competitors, it offered the highest production target for the field, the Oil Ministry said. An initial pact is expected to be signed on Thursday. The deal will then go to the Iraqi cabinet for approval before a final agreement can be signed, Oil Ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said. "We have agreed with the Ministry of Oil on the principles of the rehabilitation and development of the West Qurna field and look forward to completing the contract," said Exxon spokesman Patrick McGinn. The Exxon-Shell team beat out bids by a consortium made of Russia's OAO Lukoil and ConocoPhillips, and another one led by CNPC. After rejecting the Oil Ministry's payment terms as too stingy during a June auction, the three competitors for West Qurna later accepted the ministry's original $1.90-per-barrel payment for additional oil extracted above current production levels. Originally, Exxon asked for $4 a barrel, while the Lukoil consortium proposed $6.49 a barrel. The CNPC team proposed $2.60 a barrel. West Qurna-1 is believed to have about 8.7 billion barrels in oil reserves. The BP-CNPC group was the only consortium that didn't walk away from the summer bidding round, agreeing to cut its own proposed fees drastically to secure an early deal for Iraq's super-giant Rumaila field. Since the summer auction, the Oil Ministry continued talks with several companies regarding their bids. On Monday, Eni, along with partners Occidental and Korea Gas Corp., of South Korea, signed an initial agreement to develop the Zubair field in southern Iraq. Iraqi officials hope the contracts for the Rumaila, West Qurna-1 and Zubair fields will help bring Iraq's oil production to seven million barrels a day in six years, compared with the current production level of about 2.5 million barrels a day. Iraqi officials have struggled for years to lift production. Baghdad, even with foreign help, still faces major hurdles once work begins. Security across the country is still poor, though overall violence has fallen since the worst of Iraq's sectarian violence, following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Another possible hurdle is the health of the oil fields themselves. Iraqi oil officials have complained for years that Saddam Hussein pushed them to produce too much oil too quickly, without needed investment. Oil analysts have worried that may have damaged reservoirs irreparably. Iraq will hold a second bidding round in December for 10 unexplored oil and gas fields. Exxon Mobil, Lukoil, CNPC and other oil giants are among the more than 40 companies that are eligible to participate in that auction.

In Kabul, a collective sigh of relief

With Karzai declared winner, many hope political tension is over By Pamela Constable and Joshua Partlow Tuesday, November 3, 2009 Washington Post KABUL -- Election officials declared Afghan President Hamid Karzai the winner of a new five-year term Monday, canceling Saturday's runoff election just one day after Karzai's sole challenger quit the race. The decision ended weeks of political drift since a first presidential poll in August was found invalid because of massive fraud. In the capital, a sense of relief was instant and palpable. Kabul residents honked horns and exchanged celebratory text messages as the news spread. American, European and U.N. officials rushed to congratulate Karzai and pledged to work closely with his new administration. But the decision to allow Karzai to begin a new term without a clear mandate raised questions about the legitimacy of his future administration. And despite calls for calm by his rival, Abdullah Abdullah, there were fears that opposition supporters might cause violent unrest. In an unusual and potentially worrisome development Monday evening, Abdurrashid Dostum, a former ethnic militia leader and political ally of Karzai's who has a long track record of human rights abuses, arrived on an international flight at the Kabul airport. Dostum, who has been living in exile in Turkey, is a longtime rival of a northern strongman who backed Abdullah. An official from Dostum's political party confirmed Monday night that the ethnic Uzbek commander had just arrived in Kabul. He insisted that the visit was "normal" and that Dostum had no special agenda. But Dostum is a powerful and controversial figure. His last known visit here, to support Karzai's campaign in August, lasted only a few days after U.S. officials complained. Supporters of Dostum in northern Faryab province, reached by phone Monday night, said they expected him to visit there to rouse support in case of violence from followers of Attah Mohammed, the governor of nearby Balkh province. Mohammed, who abandoned Karzai to back Abdullah, is a former militia leader and longtime rival of Dostum's; the two camps have at times fought bloody battles. Mohammed has said he will not recognize a new Karzai government. 'Now he's elected' The terse announcement of Karzai's victory was made by the chairman of the Afghan Independent Election Commission, Azizullah Lodin, whose removal had been demanded by Abdullah as one of several conditions for remaining in the race. After Karzai rejected the demands, Abdullah, a former foreign minister and eye doctor, withdrew Sunday, saying he did not believe the runoff would be fair or transparent. Lodin said the seven-member panel had been "fully prepared" to hold the runoff but had decided that it should be canceled for a combination of reasons. He noted that there was only one candidate, that the poll would be costly and dangerous to hold, and that it could have created "many challenges to the country's security and stability." The chairman cited several provisions in the Afghan constitution in support of the panel's decision, but he also compared the situation to a wrestling match. Peppered with questions about how the commission reached its conclusion, Lodin said, "If one wrestler refuses to wrestle, the referee raises the hand of the other and declares him the winner." Lodin brushed off questions about Abdullah's complaints that Lodin had been biased during the election process toward Karzai, who appointed him and the other panel members. "We have answered these questions a thousand times. There is no need to discuss it further," he said through an interpreter. Abdullah aides said the decision had come as no surprise and was another indication of the panel's favoritism toward Karzai, but they accepted the result. "I think people were fed up with this controversy over the election," said Homayoun Shah Assefy, an Abdullah running mate. "I think it's a good thing that this is finished. Whether it's legal or not, we can stop discussing this matter. Now he's elected." Despite lingering questions over the commission's impartiality, foreign officials welcomed the announcement and said it appeared to have a constitutional basis. U.S. officials said privately that Karzai would clearly have won the runoff, and they maintained that Abdullah's voluntary withdrawal made it unnecessary to hold a new poll that would have exposed voters to the risk of Taliban attack. Even after hundreds of thousands of votes were discarded as fraudulent in the August poll, Karzai won more than 49 percent to Abdullah's 30 percent. U.N. reaction U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, visiting Kabul on Monday, said he welcomed the decision to cancel the poll and congratulated Karzai. He stressed, however, that "the new president must move swiftly to form a government that is able to command the support of both the Afghan people and the international community." Ban promised that the United Nations would continue to help Afghanistan despite the insurgent attack here that killed five foreign U.N. employees and three Afghans last week. But while Ban was pledging "every support and assistance to the new government" in Kabul, the United Nations announced that it would reduce its foreign staff in Pakistan and suspend some projects along the Afghan-Pakistani border, where extremist groups are based. In the streets of Kabul, many evening commuters and shoppers said they were happy and relieved that the election issue had been settled. Some said they had supported Karzai, but others said they were more concerned about preventing election-related violence than about whether Karzai or Abdullah won. "I am happy we are not going for the second round," said taxi driver Baz Mohammed, 40. "Security is terrible, business is stopped and the election would have cost a lot of money. I hope Afghanistan will stay calm now and that Mr. Karzai will be able to bring some changes." It was not clear how soon Karzai would begin his term or what changes he would make. U.S. officials and other Western allies have been urging him to crack down on corruption and improve governance, possibly with help from foreign advisers or new technocratic aides.

N. Korea Says It Has More Bomb-Grade Plutonium

New York Times By CHOE SANG-HUN SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea put further pressure on the United States to start bilateral talks by declaring on Tuesday that it had completed reprocessing its spent nuclear fuel for use in a bomb. In early September, North Korea had told the United Nations Security Council that it was in the “final phase” of reprocessing 8,000 spent fuel rods unloaded from its nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang, and was “weaponizing” plutonium extracted from the rods. If reprocessed with chemicals, the rods could yield enough plutonium for at least one nuclear bomb, according to officials and nuclear experts in Seoul and Washington. Using the same procedure at Yongbyon, North Korea was believed to have already accumulated enough plutonium for six to eight bombs. On Monday, the North’s official news agency, K.C.N.A., said that the country completed reprocessing the 8,000 rods two months ago and had made “significant achievements” in turning the plutonium into an atomic bomb. “We have no option but to strengthen our self-defense nuclear deterrent in the face of increasing nuclear threats and military provocations from hostile forces,” the news agency said. North Korea conducted underground nuclear tests in October 2006 and in May. In April, it also test-fired a long-range rocket. If fully developed, the rocket, known as a Taepodong-2, is feared to have the capacity to deliver a nuclear warhead as far as North America. Those moves resulted in new United Nations sanctions. Now, North Korea is trying to draw the United States back to the negotiating table, where its threats to reactivate its Yongbyon nuclear complex and acquire more bomb material serve as its strongest negotiating tool to obtain humanitarian aid, diplomatic recognition and other rewards. On Monday, North Korea pressed the United States for a decision about starting bilateral talks, warning that it was ready to proceed with its nuclear weapons program. North Korea has also said it was also enriching uranium. Highly-enriched uranium would give it another route to build nuclear bombs.

Tensions Between Turkey and the West Increase

By DAN BILEFSKY ISTANBUL — With Turkey’s prospects for joining the European Union growing more elusive and the country reaching out to predominantly Muslim countries with a vigor not seen in years, a longstanding question is vexing the United States and Europe: Is this large, secular Muslim country turning East instead of West? When President Obama visited Turkey in April — a symbolic gesture that underlined Turkey’s geostrategic importance — he emphasized the country’s role as a bridge between East and West, acknowledged its mediation in the Arab-Israeli conflict and threw his weight solidly behind Turkey becoming a European Union member. Now, six months later, some in Washington and Brussels are questioning Turkey’s dependability as an ally, and many Turks are asking whether they should reject the European Union before the bloc rejects them. Fears that Turkey is abandoning its bridge-building role were fanned this month when it canceled air force exercises with Israel, straining ties that frayed in January when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan castigated Israel’s president, Shimon Peres, over the war in Gaza, in front of world leaders at Davos, Switzerland. Senior Turkish officials say Mr. Erdogan, who was mediating between Israel and Syria just weeks before the conflict in Gaza broke out, felt personally betrayed by Israel’s aggression and what he regarded as the needless killing of innocent Muslims. At the same time, some Western diplomats say, Turkey has made what they consider alarming overtures toward Iran. When the official result of Iran’s disputed presidential election was announced in June, Turkey was one of the first countries to congratulate President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his re-election. On Tuesday, during a visit to Tehran, Mr. Erdogan said the West was applying a double standard in pressuring Iran over its nuclear program. “Those who are chanting for global nuclear disarmament should first start in their own countries,” he said. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has vociferously opposed European Union membership for Turkey, arguing that it is not geographically part of Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has expressed similar reservations. Many Turks have interpreted the rejection to mean that their country is not welcome because of its large Muslim population. At a meeting in Istanbul last week about Turkey’s relations with its neighbors, Representative Robert Wexler, chairman of the European subcommittee in Congress, said: “You wonder why Turkey is curious about different avenues? Look at your own behavior and attitude, Europe.” Other analysts say that cultural and economic factors are also pushing Turkey in that direction. Ersin Kalaycioglu, a political science professor at Sabanci University, noted that the global financial crisis had contracted European economies, prompting Turkey, a large exporter, to seek different markets. He and others also suggested that leaders of the governing Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., a socially conservative party with Muslim roots, felt more at home in Riyadh, Damascus and Baghdad than in Paris, London or Rome. Even a partial collapse of talks with the European Union would have far-reaching consequences. Turkey is an indispensable ally for the United States and Europe. Bordered by Iran, Iraq and Syria, Turkey is a powerful symbol of the compatibility of democracy, capitalism and Islam. Located between the Middle East and the former Soviet Union, it has vital strategic importance as a transit country for gas. It also has deep influence in Afghanistan and is a regional leader in the Caucasus. Yet the country’s European Union negotiations are in a precarious state. Negotiations on a number of issues have been blocked because of its long dispute with Cyprus. For the first time in years, leading figures in the business establishment, which has always led the drive for European Union integration, are questioning the wisdom of continuing a negotiating process that appears to have no end. “We Turks are a proud nation and we don’t want to go to a house where we were invited but where the host keeps slamming the door in our face,” said Hasan Arat, an executive at a top Turkish real estate development firm. For all the country’s wounded pride, Turkish officials and analysts insist that Turkey has no intention of abandoning the West. Rather than reorienting Turkish foreign policy toward the East, Egemen Bagis, Turkey’s minister for European Union affairs, argued in an interview that the recent outreach to its neighbors — including the opening of its border with Syria, the signing of a historic agreement with Armenia to establish normal diplomatic relations and the engagement of Iran — was helping Turkey become a more effective interlocutor for its Western allies. “Any bridge with one strong leg and one weak leg can’t stand for long,” Mr. Bagis said. Ibrahim Kalin, chief foreign policy adviser to Mr. Erdogan, said Western critics of Turkey’s new inclusive foreign policy were using a double standard. “When the U.S. makes an overture to Russia, everyone applauds this as a new era in diplomacy,” he said. “But when Turkey tries to reach out to Iran, people ask if it is trying to change its axis.” Mr. Kalin said that the anti-Turkish talk emanating from key European capitals was making it harder to convince the Turkish people about the need for European Union membership. Rather than worrying that Turkey is moving toward the East, said Cengiz Aktar, a leading expert here on the European Union, the West should fear a wounded Turkey turning to Russia. Already, Russia has been courting it as a distribution point for energy supplies, while Turkish investment in Russia is intensifying. “This government is perfectly capable of saying ‘no thanks’ to Europe and instead shifting toward Russia,” Mr. Aktar said.

A Prescription for Tragedy in Afghanistan

Max Boot Commentary Magazine WEB ONLY If media leaks are to be believed, President Obama will attempt to chart a middle way in Afghanistan, sending more soldiers but not as many as General Stanley McChrystal would like. The New York Times describes the emerging strategy as “McChrystal for the city, Biden for the country,” a blend of the diametrically opposed approaches advocated by the general (who favors a counterinsurgency strategy) and the vice president (who wants to do counterterrorism operations only). The Times writes that "the administration is looking at protecting Kabul, Kandahar, Maza-i-Sharif, Kunduz, Herat, Jalalabad and a few other village clusters, officials said." In the rest of Afghanistan, presumably, operations would be limited to a few air raids and Special Operations raids. Other media reports suggest that the administration is looking to send 10,000 to 20,000 troops -- not the 40,000 that McChrystal wants. To Washington politicians, this no doubt sounds like a sensible compromise. To anyone steeped in military strategy it sounds as if it could be a prescription for tragedy. The administration seems intent on doing just enough to keep the war effort going without doing enough to win it. That is also what the U.S. did in Iraq from 2003 to 2007, and for that matter in Afghanistan from 2001 to today. The ambivalence of our politicians places US troops in harm's way without giving them a chance to prevail. It is hard, of course, to make any definitive statement until the administration makes public its strategy. It is always possible that the final decision will not resemble the leaks we read today. But if the Times report is accurate, senior White House officials are bent on imposing a curious strategy on our on-the-ground commander. Most of Afghanistan's big cities are not seriously threatened by insurgents. Notwithstanding a few high-profile attacks, Kabul is pretty safe, as I discovered for myself during a recent visit. So too with Herat, Jalalabad, Maza-i-Sharif, and the rest. Even Kandahar doesn't have much violence, although the Taliban undoubtedly exert some control over what goes on inside the city limits. The problem lies in the countryside, where the Taliban have been pursuing the same strategy that the mujahideen used against the Soviets in the 1980s -- consolidate control in rural areas and then launch attacks on the cities where foreign troops are garrisoned. The Taliban right now are still working to secure the countryside and it would be a grave mistake if we allowed them to pursue that strategy hindered only by a few air strikes that inevitably would be ineffective unless we had troops on the ground to generate accurate targeting intelligence. That doesn't mean that we should send forces into remote outposts where no one lives. McChrystal is, in fact, pulling back such small bases, and rightly so. But his strategy envisions major operations to secure the Helmand River Valley, a rural area but one with plenty of substantial towns and villages. This is the economic heart of southern Afghanistan and the country's major poppy-growing region. His strategy also envisions taking control of the rural areas that surround major cities such as Kandahar and Kabul. In the case of the capital, that means pacifying provinces to the south such as Logar and Wardak. The approaches to those cities have been in the grip of the Taliban, and breaking their vice grip will require more troops. Similarly, Baghdad did not start to become secure in 2007 until the U.S. deployed substantial surge troops to the "gates" of the city -- the belt of rural territory surrounding the capital including the "triangle of death" to the south. If the Obama strategy does not envision a similar offensive in Afghanistan, it will be making a terrible mistake. But if such an offensive is planned it will take a lot of troops -- 10,000 to 20,000 probably won't cut it, especially if most of those are providing combat "enablers" (medevac, air support, route clearance, intelligence, and the like). But don't just take my word for it. Here is what a senior Afghan general in Kabul told me not long ago: "It's not enough to hit a terrorist sanctuary or two with Predators and Hellfires and leave the Taliban to breed. That will only prolong the fighting. In my opinion a counterterrorist strategy is not the answer. We need extra forces to cover all the threatened areas, to keep highways open, and to accelerate the growth of the army and police." I can only hope that the White House will heed his words.